In most parts of the world, a military commander’s promise of support is as good a reason as any for a politician to start packing bags and booking flights to unknown destinations. It’s a sure sign that their jacket is on a shoogly peg – the equivalent of a football manager being offered the full backing of the board when the team is languishing at the bottom the league. It’s probably no different for Fiji’s prime minister, Laisenia Qarase, as he considers his position this weekend.

Yesterday, he bowed to the pressure being exerted by Commodore Frank Bainimarama, the head of the country’s armed forces, and agreed to drop a controversial bill that would have given an amnesty to former rebel leaders. As Bainimarama was the naval officer responsible for pulling Fiji back from the brink of civil war in 2000 when he cleared up the muddle left after the attempted coup led by George Speight, he clearly meant business. For a while it seemed all too likely that the country would be plunged into its fourth political coup in 20 years. The Australian government immediately sent a fleet of warships to pick up some 7000 of its nationals and the geopolitical region braced itself for trouble ahead.

It was at that point that the military made its move, but it was not the one which most people expected. When Bainimarama’s deputy, Captain Esala Teleni, met Qarase on Friday the talks were said to have been cordial and constructive. No, said the soldier, there was not going to be a coup. Any talk of bloodshed was not descriptive but a warning about what could happen if Fijians started fighting each other. Quite right, replied the politician, there’s just been a misunderstanding, a simple hiccup and we’re all the best of friends.

What happens next is down to personal chemistry. Bainimarama is a quietly spoken naval officer who is liked by the international military community while Qarase, a banker, is acutely aware of the need to take Fiji forward by embracing the free-market economy. Both have the best interests of their country at heart but for many reasons, some personal, some political, there is bad blood between them and a state of cold war has dominated their relationship since the last coup six years ago.

It’s not an uncommon problem: Qarase came to power with Bainimarama’s backing, but they have since fallen out over what should be done with the ethnic Indian element who represent nearly half of the population. Broadly speaking, the prime minister has adopted a communalist approach and is keen to offer reconciliation to those involved in the coup of 2000. At the same time, Bainimarama opposed any attempt to offer the hand of friendship to Speight and his cohorts, and has produced warning after warning that the armed forces will intervene if anything is done to bring that about. It hasn’t helped matters that Bainimarama has been out of the country visiting Fijian peacekeeping forces in the Middle East or that elderly president Ratu Josefa Iloilo has been admitted to hospital.

One thing might pull the crisis back from the brink: Fiji has already been censured by the Commonwealth for its political instability over the last three decades and it cannot afford the financial penalties of being pushed out into the cold for a second time. The military men’s straight-talking also seems to have concentrated minds. When Qarase reassembled his administration on Friday he felt confident enough to finalise a budget that gives a bigger slice to the military. Sensible man – it might just keep his coat on the peg.